“There is nothing more British than a good queue” claims the UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero. In a recent explainer reel on the proposed Connections Reform package, they place the emphasis on a good queue. Because a bad queue, well, that’s simply not cricket.
This is the distinction which the National Energy System Operator (NESO) is trying to make with its reforms. Right now, the queue for connecting new energy projects to the UK grid is not a good queue.
Change is coming. Mostly good, mixed with some causes of potential concern. Before we can talk about what’s changing, we should examine what’s no longer working.
Traditionally, new users of our national electricity system have all joined the same orderly queue. First come, first served; you ask for a grid connection and get offered the next available slot. This has worked well enough for a long time.
But then, we started drastically increasing the number of new projects entering the process. The goal is rapid decarbonisation, but in practice, we’ve ended up with a massive queue and an enormous backlog. If you applied for a grid connection in 2024, you would have been offered a connection in the 2040s.
That alone is enough to discourage investment in renewables in the UK. What happened is that the UK accumulated a 750 GW backlog of “on paper” projects, many times more power than it needs. To illustrate: A spike in hopeful standalone battery storage applications accounts for ten times more power than NESO consider to be a useful maximum. But these unnecessary projects are holding up necessary ones because they applied first.
The package of proposals which NESO have submitted to Ofgem is collectively called the TM04+ package. The headline change is that we’re moving from a first-come-first-served system to one that assesses whether a project is ready and needed: Readiness being about land rights and consent, while needed means alignment with the government’s vision for strategic energy planning.
TM04+ will introduce twice yearly application windows, in order to batch up and coordinate network design. The first window for applications opened on 8 July 2025 and everyone has to re-apply, even if you’re already in the queue. NESO then uses this list to see which projects are most needed and which are closest to being ready.
Being ready is relatively easy to demonstrate. In the main: Does your project have consent? Has it submitted planning applications? Has it secured land rights and can you detail a site red line boundary drawing to match? Assessing readiness goes a long way towards removing speculative applications.
Determining whether a project is needed can get a little more complex. In-scope generation, such as wind, solar-PV, and battery energy storage systems, are assessed against regional permitted capacity allocations. Other types of generation, for example nuclear and unabated gas, are evaluated against national permitted capacity allocations. And then there are also applicants, primarily transmission-connected demand, which face no limitation and automatically pass the “needed” assessment.
NESO has also reserved the right to pass specific projects by exception – this will include already very advanced developments, which receive a “protected” queue position, and a miscellaneous group (e.g. long-lead time, novel technology schemes, or system stability providers), which receive “designated” status to hold their queue position.
Yes – with a little dash of no! Viewing grid connection applications through the lens of projects being needed and ready will dramatically cut the backlog. That 750 GW queue could reasonably be expected to shrink to a far more manageable and actually realisable 200-250 GW.
Resetting the queue and taking future applications in staggered windows also enables more centralised strategic planning. We’ll know with greater certainty which projects will be needed (and where) by the time each application window opens. We can have more confidence in what network need to be built and where, accelerating the right grid upgrades, ensuring that they are delivered on time – a problem that has plagued all national electricity systems for decades.
Within the regulatory world, the pace of this reform is nigh unprecedented… And therein lie the potential problems, because no system is perfect. While I am optimistic about TM04+, I accept the inevitability of things not going wholly to plan. One concern is the tight allocation of Scottish wind capacity through to 2035, which could lead to the loss of valuable pipeline projects that would have otherwise helped to achieve the UK’s green energy transition. Additionally, NESO’s presently rigid stance on hybrid projects may unintentionally compromise national system resilience at a time when flexibility and innovation are most needed.
Nevertheless, the hope is that these reforms make the UK’s 2030 Clean Power goals achievable. It’s a more rational system that shows investors we’re serious about clean power and able to deliver a decarbonised grid.
While the transmission window has recently opened, distribution customers have been able to submit evidence to their distribution company since May, which has been something of a soft launch; so distribution companies have been able to get a sense of the early submissions. Fun fact: It’s notable that at the time of writing around 50% of all submissions have been non-compliant, so take care preparing your own submission!
Throughout this journey, we at BayWa r.e., in our role as a leading and responsible developer, have been holding NESO and the network companies accountable for their part in delivering this reform, ensuring that it is realistic, implementable, and fair. We’ll carry on fighting for clean affordable energy and representing the sector in policy discussions. We contributed to TM04+, securing transparency measures, such as public records of applicants. I’ve personally been part of policy groups which advised the UK government and the regulator on connections reform implementation, and chaired an oversight group for RenewableUK.
More recently, BayWa r.e. has been leading the call for a Fairer Energy Future. This professional cross-industry coalition, including renewable generators, industrial trade unions, and energy intensive users, such as UK Steel, is pushing for a fairer, cheaper, and faster route to clean power by 2030.
Change, rapid change in particular, will always be met with trepidation. But we have a solid opportunity to address a critical obstacle standing in the way of our national decarbonisation goals. So long as we can stay the course, there’s still an energy future worth fighting for.